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Resultados para: dan gardner

7 produtos
  • Superprevisões - A Arte e A Ciência de...

    Gardner, Dan
    (9255016)

    Todas as nossas decisões envolvem prognósticos sobre o futuro — agimos com base em previsões implícitas do que provavelmente vai acontecer. O problema é que costumamos errar muito mais do que acertar. Em um estudo que durou vinte anos, o psicólogo e...

  • e-book

    Summary of Superforecasting - by Philip E....

    (9466728)

    Summary of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Includes Analysis Preview:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about theaccuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a...

  • e-book

    Superprevisões

    Gardner, Dan; Philip Tetlock
    (9732865)

    Todas as nossas decisões envolvem prognósticos sobre o futuro — agimos com base em previsões implícitas do que provavelmente vai acontecer. O problema é que costumamos errar muito mais do que acertar. Em um estudo que durou vinte anos, o psicólogo e...

  • Superforecasting

    Gardner, Dan; Philip Tetlock
    (9399445)

    A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015'The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.'—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future,...

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  • e-book

    Superforecasting - The Art and Science of...

    Gardner, Dan; Philip Tetlock
    (9489278)

    What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by...

  • e-book

    Future Babble - How to Stop Worrying and Love...

    Gardner, Dan
    (9679545)

    In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it,...

  • Risco - A Ciência e a Política do Medo

    Gardner, Dan
    (2638012)

    Dan Gardner explora uma nova forma de pensar sobre as decisões que tomamos e nos propõe o questionamento do consenso produzido pelo noticiário e os nossos instintos. O pressentimento resultante nos faz superestimar grosseiramente o perigo de ameaças...

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